The western Pacific is currently a highly militarized region - six among the top 10 countries have largest standing militaries of the world, and three of the four nuclear weapon capable nations (China, Russia and the US) in the region add to naval nuclear dynamics. These are significant to shape the security dynamics in the region that is marked by politico-diplomatic-strategic tensions, military infrastructure buildup, and aggressive naval-air posturing which appears to be a mirror image of the Cold War that lasted nearly three decades.

The US is now in an overdrive to build robust offensive and defensive capabilities in the western Pacific to ensure strategic ascendency. There are at least three notable developments in the region to reassure US’ alliance partners and friends, few ASEAN countries, and Taiwan.

First, military augmentation in Japan and the Philippines. Japan announced an increase in defence budget by 0.96 percent for the current fiscal year totaling nearly 1.19 percent of the country’s GDP. This makes Japan the third biggest military spender in the world after the US and China. Tokyo also has plans to “increase defense spending to the NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP in 2027”. A new US Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) will be stationed in Japan by 2025 as part of a larger process of expansion of the US Japan security alliance.

Meanwhile, the US-Philippines alliance has now taken a firm shape and allows the US to construct military facilities for use by both the military establishment as also enable the US military to preposition equipment and rotate forces through these facilities. The US now has access to nearly half a dozen military bases and was recently granted access to four more including “one strategic location facing Taiwan”. In 2022, Manila received the largest US military assistance in the Indo-Pacific region after Philippines restored Visiting Forces Agreement in 2021.

The Philippines has been under extreme coercion by China whose maritime militia masquerade as fishermen in Philippines claimed features in South China Sea. The Chinese Coast Guard is getting more brazen by the day and the recent incident involving use of military-grade laser by a Chinese coast guard vessel at a Philippines Coast Guard vessel has added a new dimension to the ongoing tensions between the two countries.

Second is the military buildup in the large maritime-littoral area i.e. from Hawaii and Guam- through China’s First and Second Island Chains close to the Chinese coast along the Taiwan Strait. This maritime theater is the centre of gravity of the US-China contestation where the US and China have brought to bear their respective military capabilities. Both sides have been conducting military exercises including operations by aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, nuclear submarines and Special Forces operations.  

In particular, the US is building-augmenting military infrastructure at Guam, Wake Island, Tinian and Pagan. A “defensive ring” for Guam for a “360-degree persistent and integrated air defense capability in Guam” has been announced. The US also formally opened a new marine base in 70 years (since 1952) at Camp Blaz to host 5,000 Marines earlier this year. It will serve as a “strategic hub” to support the vision of the 2022 National Defense Strategy,” that has prioritized “defending the homeland” against China’s growing military capabilities that can potentially strike the US mainland, allies, and partners.

Similarly, military infrastructure at Wake Atoll is being strengthened and a powerful radar on the atoll was tested for its effectiveness in 2019 wherein an incoming intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched from Kwajalein island was tracked by this radar and destroyed by ground based interceptors in California. Similarly, the airfield at Tinian is being revamped to support operations by aerial refueling and transport aircraft and Pagan could be refurbished as a diversionary airfield for military aircraft for which consultations are in progress with authorities of Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Defences in Hawaii are also being augmented through eight Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, Homeland Defense Radar-Hawaii, and additional SM-3IIA interceptors envisaged under the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2021.

Third is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), a fiscal instrument to support for military activities and associated infrastructure in the Pacific Ocean. The PDI was announced in 2019 and is similar to the 2014 European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) that targeted Russia after it annexed Crimea. The PDI budget request for 2023 is US$6.1 billion and would be solely for the Indo Pacific region. The focus is on (a) Improved Posture and Presence of new capabilities ($6.46 billion for strengthening Guam missile defense infrastructure); (b) Logistics and Prepositioning of Equipment ($500 million); (c) Exercises, Training, and Experimentation ($2 billion); (d) Infrastructure Improvements in Guam, Japan, Australia, and the Mariana Islands ($1.8 billion) and (e) Improve Defense and Security Capabilities of Allies and Partners ($732 million).

The military rivalry between the US and China is perhaps the most pressing geopolitical and geostrategic issue in the Pacific Ocean and is fraught with strategic uncertainty and military risks. Currently there are no signs of entente anytime soon and new issues keep coming to the fore such as the recent sighting-downing of the Chinese balloon by the US that preclude military dialogue.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.