The Looming Taiwan factor in the Group of Seven Summit 2021

Amidst the ongoing COVID pandemic, the Group of Seven (G7) summit was held on 11-13 June 2021. The grouping is guided by the ideals of free-open societies and democracies, and a commitment to multilateralism. Amongst many other important issues, the G7 communiqué highlighted the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and noted “We reiterate the importance of maintaining a free and open Indo Pacific, which is inclusive and based on the rule of law.” Furthermore, “We underscore the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and encourage the peaceful resolution of Cross-Strait issues.” Response from Taiwan

Taiwan has hailed the G7 communiqué, and in a Facebook post, Tsai Ing-wen thanked the members for their “resolute support.” Similarly, a Taiwanese Foreign Ministry Twitter post has noted “G7 support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the WHO & WHA, as well as recognition of the country’s successful contribution to combating COVID-19, is sincerely appreciated,” Further, Taiwan also welcomes the “G7 call for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region.” The presidential office has accepted that ever since its inception, it was for the first time that G7 has come out with a “content friendly to Taiwan” and highlighted the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwanese government has strongly supported the G7 statement and affirmed that Taiwan will “firmly contribute the greatest force for good” in the Indo-Pacific region.

It may be noted Taiwan has always been proactive in embracing the concept of Indo-Pacific and since its inception, it has articulated its responses and strategies towards the region. Taiwan has initiated programme such as the Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF), and the US and Taiwan jointly launched the Indo-Pacific Democratic Governance Consultation. In May 2018, the Taiwanese government established the Indo-Pacific Affairs Section in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The New Southbound Policy initiated by President Tsai Ing-wen on August 2016 is also an outreach into the Indo-Pacific region.

Most of the G7 member do not have formal ties with Taiwan. Despite this, they are concerned about the developments in cross-strait relations and pressure China is exerting on Taiwan. Any disruption in the region will destroy the regional peace and stability. There are only 15 countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. In the last few years, due to Chinese pressure, eight countries have cut off diplomatic relations.

Response from China
The G7 communique has criticized China on multiple issues such as human rights violation in Xinjiang, the origin of Coronavirus/Wuhan Virus, and interference in the autonomy of Hong Kong. China even called the US “very ill” and resorted to Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Soon after the communique was released, China sent 28 aircraft into the southwestern ADIZ of Taiwan. It was the largest group of People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) warplanes flying through the region on daily basis. According to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defence, the PLAAF formations included fourteen J-16 and six J-11fighter jets, four H-6 bombers, two KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft, one electronic warfare variant of the Y-8 series and another Y-8 type in an anti-submarine warfare configuration. In response, the Taiwanese Air Force scrambled combat aircraft, air defence assets were activated to monitor the situation and issued warning messages to the Chinese aircraft through radio.

According to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence data, the PLA has made more than 2900 incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in 2020. In the first five months of 2021, there were around 300 sorties. Such incursions have forced the Taiwanese Air Force to scramble interceptors, raising the possibility of unplanned combat. China has increased pressure on Taiwan by sending planes in the guise of regular military drill to assert sovereignty and described it as a routine drills.

Response from the US
The growing proximity between the US and Taiwan seems to be working behind the statement in the communique. The US along with other members was successful to club Taiwan with maritime disputes surrounding China in the communique. In addition, on the sidelines of G7 summit, Joe Biden met Yoshihide Suga and discussed Taiwan Strait situation.

Recently, the US also sent vaccines to Taiwan, a move that has been criticized by China. The Chinese newspapers have published several editorials on the issue such as “US vaccine aid to Taiwan comes with political condition: be Washington’s pawn to confront mainland” and “DPP, Washington playing dirty shell game: China Daily editorial”. These articles are critical of the vaccine supplies and are blaming the Democratic Progressive Party government of Taiwan for not taking the same from China. Despite these criticisms, the US-Taiwan vaccine diplomacy and economic cooperation is on the upward trajectory.

The geostrategic location of Taiwan is of immense importance to G7 countries. Their recent communique comes as a backing/support for Taiwan. The director of the Prospect Foundation Taiwan, I-Chung Lai opines that the international community’s attention on the Strait can be assessed by the “institutionalized expressions of concern” that was on display at the G7 meeting. According to I-Chung Lai, it provides a sort of evidence of established custom and usage that creates the basis of international law, which in turn could serve as a powerful security guarantee for Taiwan. It also includes giving Taiwan its due place in the World Health Organisation (WHO) of which Taiwan is not a member because of the Chinese objections. China has also blocked Taiwan’s entry in the World Health Assembly (WHA). This year there was a possibility of Taiwan entering the WHA because of its exemplary performance in fighting the COVID pandemic. Seemingly, the decision was deferred due to Chinese pressure. Overall, the G7 communique comes appears to be a diplomatic victory for Taiwan.

Dr Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.