Dr Vijay Sakhuja
Third, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), valued at US $60 billion. China is committed to the BRI in Pakistan despite security occurrences at various project sites, safety of Chinese officials and technicians, and project “continuity and timely completion” remains an issue.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin had expressed concerns over protection for the Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects. President Xi has been quoted as saying “China hopes Pakistan will take effective measures to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in Pakistan,” to which Sharif assured that his country would “spare no effort”. He reiterated this assurance at the Pak-China B2B conference, “I want to make it clear before this assembly of great leaders that the security of Chinese brothers and sisters in Pakistan is paramount for all of us.”
China is also concerned about domestic political instability, and Beijing has counseled Islamabad that all political parties should work for domestic and social stability to ensure sustainable development. Notwithstanding that, both sides have “reaffirmed their shared commitment and resolve to further strengthen the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership”.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif succeeded in securing cooperation agreements-deals worth US $8.5 billion (US $ 7 billion in joint projects and US $1.5 billion in investments in agriculture, renewable energy, electric vehicles, health, and steel). Dubbed as CPEC 2.0, it will feature five new corridors linking Xinjiang in China to Pakistan's Gwadar port.
The recent visit by General Munir to the US in August 2025 and Secretary of State Marco Rubio statement that the US was “looking forward to exploring cooperation with Pakistan on critical minerals and hydrocarbons” also do not appear to have created any chill in the Sino-Pakistan relations.
The Chinese strategic experts are confident about their “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership” with Pakistan and one of them remarked that “Trump's candy to Pakistan looks like a disturbance to China, but actually, cannot affect the structural stability of the Sino-Pak relationship…the US intervention has created short-term geopolitical noise but is unlikely to shake the foundation of China-Pakistan dependence,” Interestingly, it is noted that “For Pakistan, 'make profits both ways' economically is a rational choice, but its security and infrastructure lifelines are tied to China closely, and the strategic balance has not tilted,” suggesting that the partnership is solid and such aberrations cannot far breakaway Islamabad from Beijing.
Fourth, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) aimed at economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe through a corridor that passes through United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy and Greece. This multi-modal connectivity initiative was announced by Prime Minister Modi at New Delhi at the G20 Summit in September 2023. There appears urgency to kick start the IMEEC; earlier this month Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and President of the European Council H.E. Antonio Costa and President of the European Commission H.E. Ursula von der Leyen, in their telephonic conversation, emphasised on boosting bilateral relations including the implementation of the IMEEC corridor.
In essence, the above four connectivity corridors i.e. Transarctic Transport Corridor (TTC), Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), and China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are deep into geopolitical and geostrategic contestation. Although the TTC is highly lucrative, but is constrained by the harsh Arctic conditions which limit its use only for 5 to 6 months. The linking of Russian canals and INSTC is ambitious and can at best be labelled as symbolic.
Though TRIPP is meant to soothe the turbulent south Caucuses geopolitics, particularly Azerbaijan and Armenia, it has added more uncertainty in the region. Moscow sees it as a move to undermine its influence in the South Caucasus, and Tehran views it as eastward expansion of the NATO right at its door steps.
The general perception is that the CPEC may not hit roadblocks due to security of both Chinese projects and its engineers-workers, shifting foreign policy choices i.e. Pakistan cozying up (?) to the US, and poor state of Pakistan’s economy.
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is languishing due to multiple reasons including geopolitical and geostrategic contestation particularly between Iran-Russia (under sanctions) and the US led west.
The IMEEC has the potential to attract billions of dollars in investments particularly from UAE and Saudi Arabia, but the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict with Iran-Houthis potential to attack infrastructure in Israel could be a high-risk factor.
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.