Two trilateral grouping shaped by China are gathering momentum in South Asia. In May 2025, foreign ministers of Afghanistan, China and Pakistan (ACP) held an “informal” trilateral meeting in Beijing and agreed to “enhancing diplomatic engagement”, “promote regional security and economic connectivity”, and announced plans to hold their 6th Trilateral Meeting in Kabul.

China’s interest in Afghanistan emerges from the strategic vacuum created in the country after US’ withdrawal. It has provided an opportunity for China to access the untapped wealth of natural resources in the country. Besides China hopes to integrate Afghanistan into the 3000 kilometer long China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which connects Xinjiang in China with Gwadar port in Pakistan.

Close on its heels, Bangladesh, China and Pakistan (BCP) have come together to convert respective bilateral relations into a trilateral partnership. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, Bangladesh’s acting Foreign Secretary Ruhul Alam Siddique and Pakistan’s Additional Foreign Secretary Imran Ahmed Siddiqui met in Kunming in June 2025 and pledged to pursue a “win-win cooperation”.

Minister Sun Weidong underlined the rationale for the BCP to augment the Belt and Road cooperation. Besides being “good neighbors, good friends” Sun Weidong added they are “key members of the Global South and share the mission of national revitalization and modernization,” He also emphasized that the “trilateral cooperation is not only in line with the collective aspirations of our people but is also essential for ensuring peace, stability, and prosperity in the region.”

The above rationale and justification merits attention from at least two perspectives. First, as alluded to by Minister Sun Weidong, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) are section of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the latter can be conveniently expanded to Bangladesh as well as connected though the Bay of Bengal to Sri Lanka, another node of Chinese BRI. Similarly,

Second, notwithstanding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from the country, China continues to invest in Bangladesh. Both sides upgraded their relationship to “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” during Hasina’s leadership and successfully balanced Bangladesh’s interests vis a vis China and India barring the Teesta River management project for which Beijing had offered $1 billion. However, the caretaker government led by Muhammad Yunus has bigger ambitions and promoted his country as “China's gateway to South Asia”. Younus secured significant cooperation agreements with China and signed several MoUs on economic and technical cooperation.

The notable agreements include plans to establish Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Chittagong, and modernisation-expansion of Mongla port. Dhaka also welcomed Chinese companies to participate in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, bringing China 'closer' to India's borders. Beijing had earlier been upset that Hasina had transferred the project to India. While these are commercial initiatives with strategic implications, the plan to restore the World War II era air base at Lalmonirhat has triggered concerns in New Delhi.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh has begun high-level diplomatic exchanges with Pakistan, resumed direct trade, and commenced military exchanges including naval exercises and. This shift is a reflection of Bangladesh interim government's foreign policy choices showcasing differences with India. These have become sharper after the Pakistan sponsored Pahalgam terrorist attack in Kashmir which left 26 civilians dead.

India has decided to review the December 12, 1996 Ganga Water Treaty on sharing of water between the two countries. According to an Indian external affairs ministry official New Delhi was “inclined to extend the treaty for another 30 years, but the situation changed drastically afterward,” The “situation” has been described as “increasing need for water to support domestic development, which will influence the terms of the new treaty,”

China has successfully crafted new diplomatic templates and creatively managed to bringing adversaries together to target India. Though not new, Beijing is encouraging other Southern Asia countries (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar) individually as well as collectively (China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation) to pushback against India. In this context, Pakistan-Bangladesh nexus is yet another provocation for India. The Afghanistan, China and Pakistan (ACP) and the Bangladesh, China and Pakistan (BCP) trilateral have strong anti-India focus and have surely added to New Delhi’s security concerns.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.